The word valuebet, as you can imagine, comes from English, being its translation value bet or value bet (value=value + bet=bet).
They are those bets with quotas higher than those that should be established, following the probabilities that this result occurs. Therefore, they give a higher profit than they should according to market estimates.
Simply put, they are better paid bets by bookmakers than they should be.
Valuebet example
Here is a very simple example of valuebet:
Imagine a tennis match between Nadal and Federer in which the probability that either of them wins is 50%. Using this data we can say that the correct odds would be 2.00 for both players (100/50 = 2.00).
Now we are going to see several bookies and we appreciate the following odds:
- Bet365 offers us a fee of 1.95
- Codere offers us a fee of 1.90
- Luckia offers us a share of 2.1
Guess what the value bet will be… indeed Luckia’s (2.1)
Now, this event will only happen if the Luckia bookmaker makes a serious mistake in setting their odds. Keep in mind that bookmakers always include their commission, this being one of their biggest sources of income.
How to find valuebets?
This is perhaps the million dollar question. How to be smarter than the bookmakers themselves? After all, they are the professionals when it comes to setting quotas that make them money, and believe me they are very good at making money.
One of the most effective ways is to help you from your competition, using the data of other bookmakers, mainly the data of bookmakers that place these odds better, and that commit fewer risks in establishing them.
You could do this manually, although that would be crazy. Another option would be to use an online odds comparator, valuebet calculator or valuebets scanner.
Nosotros recomendamos otra opcion: Usa la herramienta BetOven y configura su modo valuebets. Let a valuebets software take care of finding and placing those bets for you, avoiding wasting your time waiting for these opportunities to appear.
Why do it yourself when a betting bot can do it for you?
Ok, I might be interested in using a robot, but…. is there another way to find value bets?
Can a tipster help me find value?
Yes, there are great tipsters who use their knowledge outside of bookmaker stats to find value bets. However, they are surrounded by sellouts eager to sell you their premium telegram channel without having the remotest idea of sports betting.
That’s why we prefer to focus on what we already know: Bookmakers know much more about odds than anyone else, better to use them themselves to spot the mistakes of their competition. And what better than a configurable bot like BetOven to do the hard work for us?
Types of value bets
Although all valuebets follow the same principle, the way to find them follows different methods:
Statistical Valuebets and by own judgement
They are the valuebets found or performing statistical analysis of previous results, knowing the situation of each of the players in moments prior to the match, witnessing the match live and anticipating the changes in the bookies’ quota.
You can find this type of valuebets by following Tipsters and paying for their services. However, you must be careful, because among the real professionals in the sector there are a lot of scammers, with whom you will only lose your money. If you don’t know what we are talking about, take a look at our “Tipsters” blog post.
Valuebets by comparison between bookmakers
These valuebets come from the comparison between the odds established by the different bookmakers (after all, the best ones in setting the odds). From this comparison, specific odds are obtained in the bookmakers that are higher (at least in a certain percentage) than those of the rest, understanding in this case that they have made a mistake in establishing them.
This type of valuebets are more objective and are the ones that most interest us bethunters.
Advantages and disadvantages of valuebets
Undoubtedly the biggest advantage of making valuebets is that the mathematical expectation is positive, that is, in the long run you will win money. At least, if the provider of those valuebets has a positive track record of profitability. They are also mathematically more profitable than surebets (sure bets) as you don’t have to hedge your risk of loss at another bookie.
Focusing on the automated valuebets with the BetOven software it is interesting to know that in this case you will not need to be so aware of your software.
On the other hand, the biggest disadvantage comes from the higher risk involved in this type of bet compared to surebets with much lower risk, precisely because we cover the loss option.
Why are value bets profitable?
You really should be asking yourself if a valuebet is actually a valuebet or not. Their positive return is implicit in their very name, otherwise they would not be value bets. The problem comes mainly to differentiate the valuebets from those that are simply singlebets, if we do not have more information on how that valuebet has been found, it will be interesting to know the history of the valuebet supplier.
In the case of a tipster, it will be interesting to know their yield, and verify that they are in a verified portal such as Tipsterchat , in this way they will not be able to deceive us as in the classic VIP Telegram channels.
In the case of an odds comparator or betting scanners, it will also be interesting to see the Yield in a long time history.
Value = Probability?
As you can already imagine, value and probability are totally different concepts, a value bet will give us more profit for our money, but it does not have to be more likely to occur. Also, I have to tell you that placing bets with a higher probability of occurring is not going to make you more money either. You will win more bets, but you will win less money per bet.
Many times we tend to want to be cautious placing bets with low odds because of the probability that they reflect of winning the bet, but which is better: a bet with a high odds won, or several with low odds? It will indeed depend on the odds and the total bank invested, but mentally it will comfort us more to see many bets in green and few in red, even if the final winnings are less, leading us to make mistakes.
Here is an example with a BetOven history:
As you can see from the track record, mentally at first glance we may think we are losing money, when in fact we are making money.
As you can already imagine, value and probability are totally different concepts, a value bet will give us more profit for our money, but it does not have to be more likely to occur. Also, I have to tell you that placing bets with a higher probability of occurrence is not going to make you more money either. You will win more bets, but you will win less money per bet.
Many times we tend to want to be cautious placing bets with low odds because of the probability that they reflect of winning the bet, but which is better: a bet with a high odds won, or several with low odds? It will indeed depend on the odds and the total bank invested, but mentally it will comfort us more to see many bets in green and few in red, even if the final winnings are less, leading us to make mistakes.
Conclusion
The reality is that in the long run, you will make much more money with value bets than by betting on your intuition or chance, so we can say that your mathematical expectation will always be positive.
If we compare them with surebets, we can say that we will obtain greater benefits in the long term by making valuebets. However, it will increase volatility, making it a riskier short-term investment than making surebets.
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Change your way of betting, it is not just about knowing who is going to win, but about knowing in which bets you have an advantage over the bookmaker 😉
